An interactive winter survival model for cereals

Where they can be successfully over-wintered, farmers choose autumn-planted cereals as their main crop in temperate climates. Successful over-wintering depends on plant low-temperature (LT) tolerance and the programming of critical growth stages regulated by complex interactions among genotype, environment, and management that are not clearly understood.

In an article recently published in Crop Science, researchers utilized more than 50 years of data and experience to construct an interactive web-based winter survival simulation tool (https://norstar.usask.ca/survivalmodel) for use by farmers, extension workers, plant breeders, and researchers. This tool allows users to make in-depth analyses of complex LT responses and their interactions. The model is based on a series of equations describing plant development, acclimation, de-hardening, and damage due to LT stress. A high level of versatility allows interested users to systematically investigate genetic, environmental, and management interactions, production risks, cause-and-effect processes, genetic theories, strategies designed to cope with critical periods of over-winter stress, and adjustments needed to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The model is open access as a means for additional testing and validation that will lead to increased prediction accuracy over a wider range of environmental conditions and a better understanding of the dynamic interactions involved in over-winter survival of cereal crops.